Florida’s consumer confidence down one point

Florida’s consumer confidence down one pointGAINESVILLE, Fla. – May 27, 2009 – Florida’s consumer confidence dropped one point in May to 71, reflecting pessimism about personal finances despite an improved national economic outlook, the latest University of Florida (UF) survey finds.The index component measuring perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago fell four points to 40, one point above its all-time low record of 39 in December. In contrast, expectations of personal finances a year from now rose five points to 90, the highest level since October 2007.“The makeup of the consumer confidence index in May reflects optimism … but the decline in perceptions of current personal finances … is noteworthy,” says Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center at the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “Floridians are saying they don’t have the money now to buy, but they expect to within a year.”Of the remaining index components, perceptions of the U.S. economy over the next year rose four points to 73, while perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years fell four points to 78. Perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket consumer items fell six points to 72.The economic environment for consumers is mixed. On the plus side, housing prices in Florida appear to be stabilizing in some markets, although foreclosures are still high, McCarty says. In many areas, housing prices have fallen to a level that could not sustain a much larger drop.In other positive news, the unemployment rate fell two-tenths of a percent in April to 9.6 percent, McCarty says. Rising unemployment has been a big concern for policymakers in anticipating a recovery. However, the stock market continues to show volatility, although it appears to have a sustained rally.Also of concern is that retail sales have been down for the past two months, reflecting pessimism about the economy, even though April’s decline was small, McCarty said. Also, gasoline prices have risen 25 cents in the past two weeks, as is typically the case when summer travel approaches, he said.“Moving forward, we still anticipate at least a short-term decline in confidence over the next couple of months as the impact of the state budget is felt and the effects of a GM (General Motors) bankruptcy move through the system,” McCarty says.However, on balance, the economic news, while not necessarily good, is not shockingly bad, either, he adds. “Like the end of hurricane season, Floridians are grateful for a day, week or month without facing economic destruction. At this point, they just want to get about the business of cleaning up the mess.”The overall index for April was revised from a preliminary figure of 71, which was reported earlier, to 72 after all the survey data had been collected at the end of the month.The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for May was conducted from 408 responses. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year.© 2009 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Florida’s existing home, condo sales rise in April 2009

Florida’s existing home, condo sales rise in April 2009ORLANDO, Fla. – May 27, 2009 – Florida’s existing home sales rose in April – the eighth consecutive month that sales activity increased in the year-to-year comparison, according to the latest housing data released by the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR). April’s statewide sales showed gains over the previous month’s sales level in both the existing home and existing condominium markets.Existing home sales rose 18 percent last month with a total of 13,111 homes sold statewide compared to 11,133 homes sold in April 2008, according to FAR. April’s statewide existing home sales were slightly higher than statewide activity in March.Florida Realtors also reported a 21 percent rise in statewide sales of existing condos in April; existing condo sales last month increased 6.2 percent over the total units sold in March.Fourteen of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased existing-home sales in April and 11 MSAs also showed gains in condo sales. A majority of the state’s MSAs have reported increased sales for 10 consecutive months.Florida’s median sales price for existing homes last month was $138,500; a year ago, it was $199,500 for a 31 percent decrease. Housing industry analysts with the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) note, however, a significant downward distortion in the current median price due to many discounted sales, including a large number of foreclosures. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less. The national median sales price for existing single-family homes in March 2009 was $174,900, down 11.5 percent from a year earlier, according to NAR. In California, the statewide median resales price was $253,040 in March; in Massachusetts, it was $255,000; in Maryland, it was $264,302; and in New York, it was $222,500.According to NAR’s latest housing industry outlook, it could take a few months for the housing market to gain momentum, though there are signs of stabilization. “The share of lower priced home sales has trended up, indicating a return of many first-time buyers,” says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Buyer traffic has been rising, and real estate offices are getting phone inquires about the tax credit. By early summer we should be seeing a positive impact on home sales from record-low mortgage interest rates in addition to the stimulus provisions.”In Florida’s year-to-year comparison for condos, 4,660 units sold statewide compared to 3,862 units in April 2008 for a 21 percent increase. The statewide existing condo median sales price last month was $106,600; in April 2008 it was $178,900 for a 40 percent decrease. In the latest data available at press time, NAR reported the national median existing condo price was $177,600 in March 2009.Interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.81 percent last month, down significantly from the average rate of 5.92 percent in April 2008, according to Freddie Mac. FAR’s sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written. Among the state’s smaller markets, the Pensacola MSA reported a total of 316 homes sold in April compared to 272 homes a year ago for a 16 percent increase. The existing home median sales price was $143,300; a year ago, it was $157,400 for a 9 percent decrease. In the year-to-year comparison for the existing condo market, 48 units sold in the MSA last month, up 9 percent compared to 44 condos sold the previous April. The market’s existing condo median price remained level at $250,000.© 2009 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS